Friday, July 22, 2011

FORECASTING THE FOURTH

Home in Port Charlotte
High of 90, severe thunderstorms all around but not on us

I arrived home for Baltimore/Washington DC at noon today (Friday).

By 5PM the temperature in SWFL had dropped to 76 degrees when much of the northeastern US was at 100 or above.  A severe thunderstorm started with 4" of rain in North Fort Myers and brought 60 MPH winds to Arcadia in nearby DeSoto County and even closer, the Punta Gorda airport recorded a 58 MPH gust.  We were braced to be hit hard but somehow it skirted around our house.  We had a light steady shower for about an hour, that produced about a quarter of an inch.

In the Tropics, Bret is now just a low pressure system and Cindy is still churning at a 60 MPH tropical storm but neither will affect landfall.  We are now tracking a new system, 200 miles south of the Lesser Antilles or the Windward Islands.  It is a broad area of low pressure that is well defined and growing.  There is currently only a 30% chance of it becoming a named storm in the next 48 hours but that was only 10% yesterday.

Based on the position and the conditions in the Caribbean, I'd guess this will be the fourth storm of the season.  The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico can expect significant rainfall over the weekend as this system passes through.

Saturday I plan on doing some chores around the house and changing out the second of two baitwell pumps on my boat.  I will look at the weather for a possible fishing trip Sunday but right now I'm pretty exhausted from a week on the road.  I'm looking forward to a couple of nights in my own bed, before hitting the road again Monday.

Photos of the new tropical low are below. Click on pictures for full screen.

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